Today's Board

Every game on today's slate with the model's win probability, the expected value against live market pricing, and the market context behind the number. Updated through the day as lines move.

Every published pick is graded in public on the ledger, wins and misses both. Nothing is removed after the fact.

Today's board

  • PHI @ ATL (MLB) — Truist Park · 10/1 - 8:00 PM EDT · model total 9.1 vs market 7.5
    • PHI cold: 4-6 in their last 10, -16 run differential (3.2 scored / 4.8 allowed per game)
  • IND @ LV (WNBA) — 10/1 - 9:00 PM EDT · model total 184.4
    • IND outscores opponents by 5.6 a game (96.0 scored / 90.4 allowed)
    • IND scores 96.0 a game, well above the league average of 87.1
  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (NFL)
    • projection only -- ratings do not beat the closing spread (measured 50.0% ATS)
  • Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders (NFL)
    • projection only -- ratings do not beat the closing spread (measured 50.0% ATS)
  • New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (NFL)
    • projection only -- ratings do not beat the closing spread (measured 50.0% ATS)
  • New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (NFL)
    • projection only -- ratings do not beat the closing spread (measured 50.0% ATS)

105 more games on the board.

Common questions

How are the win probabilities calculated?

Each sport has its own model built on that sport's inputs — team ratings, recent form, matchup splits, bullpen or usage data — and the output is a probability, not a pick. That probability is then compared against the live market price to see whether there is an edge worth taking.

What does expected value mean in sports betting?

Expected value is what a bet is worth on average if you could place it many times. It is positive when the model's probability of winning is higher than the probability implied by the price you are offered, after removing the book's margin.

How often is the board updated?

Through the day as lines move and lineups are confirmed. Prices change, so an edge that exists in the morning may be gone by first pitch.

Is there a free version?

Yes. A demo tier gives a preview of the board and a limited number of EV reveals per day without an account.

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